The price is soaring, should gold be bought or sold？

Recently, the price of gold has started to rise continuously, constantly setting a new record. On March 9 th, the topic of "gold price is crazy" also rushed to the top of hot search.

"This week, I really changed the price card every morning and witnessed history every day." The sales of a jewelry store in the lakeside business district in Hangzhou sighed among the customers, from 636 yuan/gram on March 4 to 660 yuan/gram on March 8, the price of 24 yuan in a week has never been met.

Some analysts believe that with the beginning of the US dollar interest rate cut, the US dollar has weakened, and it is expected that gold may continue to remain strong in the future. However, in the short term, gold has been "overbought", and investors should be alert to the risk of callback.

The price of gold soared

Consumers’ enthusiasm for buying has not diminished.

On March 6, a reporter came to Shenzhen Shuibei, the largest gold and jewelry trading center in China. Customers who came to choose gold and jewelry were crowded with sales booths. Even on weekdays, the flow of people remained unabated.

During the visit, a salesperson of a gold store revealed that in recent months, the gold business in the Shuibei market has been very hot, and customers have been dialing one after another. "The weekend is even more busy."

A consumer who is buying gold jewelry told reporters that the price of gold is high recently, but it is still very cost-effective to buy gold in Shuibei. He traveled to Guangdong from other places, just "punching in" the Shenzhen Shuibei gold jewelry market.

On March 7, the domestic gold jewelry prices updated daily by many gold jewelry brands continued to soar. The Shanghai regional gold price announced by Laomiao Gold is 651 yuan/gram, while the domestic gold jewelry prices announced by Chow Tai Fook, Chaohongji, Lukfook Jewelry, Zhou Shengsheng and Xie Ruilin have exceeded 655 yuan/gram. On March 4, the price of gold jewelry in the aforementioned brand was about 636 yuan/gram.

A number of gold shops in Beijing have successively raised the price of gold. In one store, the price of gold jewelry and hard gold rose from 616 yuan/gram to 623 yuan/gram, while in other gold sales stores, the price of 999 gold per gram is close to that of 650 yuan.

On March 8th, the gold prices of several gold shops in Hangzhou generally ranged from 657 yuan/gram to 660 yuan/gram.

Although the current price of gold is at a high level, there are still many consumers who buy gold jewelry. The staff of a gold shop said that after the Spring Festival, it is often the off-season of gold sales, but this year, the international gold price has been rising all the way, and the market demand for superimposed women’s days and weddings has been released. The gold purchase fever has continued from the Spring Festival to March. Shopping malls also took the opportunity to launch many new products and full reduction activities, which were welcomed by many consumers.

However, many customers often wait and see after making an inquiry when choosing gold in a gold jewelry store. "I didn’t expect the price to be so high, let’s take a look!"

The price of gold rose with fire, and some people realized 2.89 million yuan overnight.

Gold investment has always been regarded as a relatively stable way of wealth appreciation. The huge fluctuation of the price of gold has also led to a rise in the volume and price of gold recovery.

The owner of a Shenzhen gold recycling store said that after this round of price increase, the consulting volume and recycling volume increased significantly, and many investors hoped to cash in when the price of gold rose.

In addition, the owner of a gold recycling store in Jining, Shandong Province also said that someone recently sold more than 20 kilograms of gold in their store. When the seller bought it, the price of gold was more than 300 yuan/gram, and each gram earned more than 100 yuan, making a total of more than 2 million yuan.

Mr. Liu from Beijing told reporters that in January this year, he bought 1000 grams of gold for investment with a try mentality. In the past two days, the price of gold has reached a new high. He came to the counter early in the morning to queue up for gold repurchase. He said that now is a good time to shoot. "I look at its price every day. At that time, the investment gold bar I bought was 480 yuan/gram, and now it is 499 yuan/gram, earning 5,900 yuan."

According to another report, a person in charge of a gold recycling company in Hangzhou said that at the beginning of the soaring price of gold (March 1), a customer went to the gold recycling company overnight and realized 2.89 million yuan (the gold recycling price was 482 yuan/gram). "On March 7, the recovery was as high as 505.6 yuan/gram. Based on this price difference, this customer earned 140,000 yuan less in just one week."

Analyst: Choose to buy when the short-term "overbought" callback.

The price of gold has gone out of the sharp rising market, and many friends around me have said that this price is a bit high, and it is impossible to buy it. I don’t know whether to buy or sell.

A senior person from the private banking department of a state-owned bank in Zhejiang said that the momentum of gold is like a rainbow these days, but the increase is a bit large, which has certain callback risk. However, there is little theoretical space for the substantial adjustment of gold, so it is necessary to maintain the judgment that the gold price will continue to fluctuate and rise in the medium and long term, and cherish the opportunity of gold callback.

For the strong trend of this round of international gold prices, many analysts believe that this is related to the warming of risk aversion in overseas markets.

"The expected warming of interest rate cuts in the United States, the recent global geopolitical tensions and the active increase of gold reserves by central banks are all forces to stimulate this wave of gold rise." Zhou Cong, general manager of Huaxi Futures Investment Consulting Department, analyzed and pointed out that although the US economy is still expanding, the service industry index fell more than expected, which enhanced the market’s expectation that inflation may fall further, thus affecting the decline in the yield of 10-year US government bonds. At the same time, "CME Fed observation tools show that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is 71%. With the beginning of the US dollar interest rate cut this year, the US dollar is expected to weaken and gold may continue to remain strong."

Zhang Zhongyun, an analyst of Bite Futures, also believes that the weak US economic data and the comments of Fed officials after the year have strengthened the market’s expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates; At the same time, events such as new york Community Bank have further aggravated the risk aversion of the market.

Yang Yijun, chief analyst of Wilson, holds a similar view. Under the background that the US dollar has not fallen sharply, the price of gold has surged against the trend, which is more due to the rising market risk aversion caused by the sharp drop of American community commercial banks. "At present, gold has such a strong performance at the top of interest rates, but there are some signs of overbought in the short term." There may be some callback pressure around $2,180. Investors may wish to wait for the gold price to adjust to the vicinity of the $2,100 mark before considering doing more. "

"For the market outlook, gold is expected to receive some support under the background of the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, but it is expected that the fundamentals of gold in 2024 will not be a comprehensive super-long pattern." Zhang Zhongyun believes that the current gold ETF (exchange-traded fund) positions have fallen back to the post-2020 low point, reflecting that there are certain differences in the market. "Therefore, we should be more cautious about the rising expectations of gold in the market outlook, and be cautious about the rising space, persistence and fluency.

Expert reminder

Rational investment

Complex jewelry depreciates greatly.

Some experts have analyzed that there are many reasons for the continuous rise of gold prices at present. It is suggested that ordinary investors should be cautious and invest rationally.

Xiao Jingrong, a lecturer in the Economics Teaching and Research Department of the Party School of Foshan Municipal Committee of Guangdong Province, suggested that consumers should first have a long-term investment perspective, second diversify their investments, and third adopt a fixed investment method, and buy a little every month and quarter, instead of buying too much at once, according to personal needs and asset allocation needs.

For consumers who are willing to buy gold jewelry, how to buy more value?

The Anhui Consumer Protection Committee reminded that it is first necessary to make it clear whether the purchase purpose is daily wear or investment collection. Soft gold with simple style and pricing at gram price is more valuable, less prone to damage and lower maintenance cost. 3D gold and ancient gold styles are more beautiful, but usually the actual unit price of "one-price" sales is higher. Jewelry with complicated styles, such as hollow and hollowed out, is more prone to wear and damage, and the maintenance cost and recycling depreciation are greater.

At the same time, it should be noted that there are great differences between different brands in terms of process level and processing fees, and there are differences in recycling, warranty and maintenance policies. It is recommended to consider them comprehensively.

(Comprehensive Yangguang. com, Chao News, China News Network, Zhongxin Jingwei, Red Star News, etc.)